Feeling Overwhelmed? Good! How Leadership Humility Is Crucial in Uncertain Times

It’s not unusual for even seasoned leaders to feel out of their depth. New technologies, market disruptions, and global uncertainties can make anyone feel overwhelmed. Surprisingly, that feeling of uncertainty might actually be an asset. Research and experience suggest that leaders who doubt their own expertise and stay humble often outperform those brimming with unchecked confidence. It turns out that a healthy dose of humility – recognizing what you don’t know – can be a crucial leadership strength in uncertain times.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Overconfidence vs. Competence

Psychologists have long documented a bias where people with limited knowledge tend to overestimate their abilities – a phenomenon known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. In leadership, this can be a dangerous trap. Inexperienced or low-skill individuals may be so confident that they fail to recognize their own gaps, leading to poor decisions. In fact, the Dunning-Kruger effect is defined as a cognitive bias in which “individuals with limited knowledge or competence in a specific domain often overestimate their capabilities” . In other words, those who know the least can sometimes feel most certain.

Overconfident leaders fall into this trap with serious consequences. They may charge ahead thinking they have all the answers, only to make uninformed decisions or ignore advice. This often results in suboptimal outcomes and even outright failures. Common effects of an overconfident leader include:

1. Poor Decision-Making: When a leader overestimates their ability, they are prone to making decisions based on incomplete understanding, leading to bad results 
2. Decreased Team Morale: Leaders who believe they’re infallible might dismiss valuable input. Team members who are ignored or overridden will feel frustrated and disengaged
3. Stunted Growth: Perhaps most importantly, a leader who “believes they have all the answers” is far less likely to seek new learning or feedback, hindering both personal and organizational growth

The irony is that truly skilled and knowledgeable leaders often have the opposite experience: the more they know, the more they realize they don’t know. You might recognize this in yourself – feeling a bit unsure or overwhelmed when facing a new challenge, precisely because you understand its complexity. Far from being a weakness, this self-doubt can signal that you’re avoiding the Dunning-Kruger trap. As one famous observation (often attributed to Charles Darwin) notes, ignorance breeds overconfidence, whereas knowledge breeds humility. In leadership terms, feeling a little overwhelmed can be a good sign that you have the awareness to approach challenges carefully. It means you recognize the high stakes and the limits of any one person’s expertise. In uncertain times, that mindset is far safer than blustering ahead on false confidence.

Overwhelmed? It Might Mean You’re on the Right Track

It’s counterintuitive, but the leaders who feel most confident aren’t always the best equipped for chaotic, changing environments. On the other hand, if you sometimes think, “I’m not sure I have all the answers here,” you are more likely to seek input, learn, and adapt – all hallmarks of effective leadership. A bit of humility keeps you curious and cautious. As leadership experts have pointed out, leaders who remain humble and aware of their limitations tend to make more informed decisions and build stronger teams . By acknowledging what you don’t know, you open the door for others to contribute and for new information to come in.

Overwhelmed leaders often ask better questions. Instead of issuing directives from a place of unwarranted certainty, they’ll pause and consult their teams or mentors. This creates a culture where employees feel heard and valued. Studies have found that humble leaders foster higher levels of collaboration, trust, and psychological safety on their teams. Team members under a humble leader are more likely to step up, share ideas, and even challenge the boss (in a respectful way) – ultimately leading to better solutions. In contrast, an overconfident leader who “knows it all” can shut down dialogue and miss early warnings of trouble.

Feeling unsure can also drive personal growth. Leaders who admit “I might not know enough about this – yet” tend to invest in their own development. They read, take courses, seek coaches, or learn from peers. Over time, this continuous learning habit makes them far more competent. In uncertain times, no leader can rely solely on what they learned years ago. The ones who thrive are those who keep updating their knowledge. As one Harvard Business Review analysis noted, we must learn to distinguish between confidence and competence when evaluating leaders – because true competence often comes with the humility to keep learning. In short, if you feel overwhelmed, you’re likely treating the challenges with the respect they deserve and preparing yourself to meet them effectively.

Metacognition:
The Power of Self-Reflection

How can leaders consciously turn humility and self-doubt into an advantage? The answer lies in metacognition, or put simply, thinking about your own thinking. Metacognition is a skill that great leaders use to reflect on what they know versus what they still need to learn. It’s the practice of stepping back and asking yourself questions like, “Do I really understand this issue? What am I missing? How might my own biases or blind spots be affecting my judgment?” This kind of self-reflection is crucial to managing the Dunning-Kruger effect. By regularly examining your own knowledge and decision-making process, you can catch overconfidence before it trips you up.

Cultivating metacognition means making time for honest self-assessment. For example, after a major decision or meeting, a leader with strong metacognitive habits might debrief with themselves: What went well and what didn’t? Did I overestimate my expertise somewhere? What feedback did I receive (or ignore) that I should consider? Such reflections keep you grounded. They reinforce a mindset that you’re never done growing and that every success or failure is an opportunity to learn. In fact, self-awareness – a direct outcome of metacognition – has been identified as a key to personal and professional growth . The very act of acknowledging a limitation is the first step to overcoming it.

Below is a quick insights table summarizing how you can use metacognitive practices to positively manage the Dunning-Kruger effect in your leadership:

These practices build the habit of thinking about your own thinking. By doing so, you’ll be far less likely to be that leader on the “peak of Mt. Stupid” (as the Dunning-Kruger effect is humorously illustrated) who charges ahead blindly. Instead, you’ll approach leadership challenges with a clear appreciation of their complexity – and with a plan to keep learning whatever you need to know. Importantly, metacognition also helps combat impostor syndrome (the flipside of Dunning-Kruger, where competent people undervalue themselves) by giving you a more objective view of your skills. You learn to recognize both what you do well and where you can improve, leading to a balanced confidence.

Adapt and Learn: The 21st-Century Leader

To lead in uncertain times, continuous learning and adaptability aren’t just buzzwords – they’re requirements. The world is evolving at breakneck speed, and the shelf-life of any given skill or strategy is shorter than ever. (Consider how quickly developments in artificial intelligence, for example, are changing best practices in every industry.) Modern leadership means becoming a 21st-century learner yourself. This echoes what education experts like Charles Fadel emphasize in their frameworks for the “21st-century learner.” Fadel, who helped craft a model for 21st-century education, stresses the importance of adaptability and “learning how to learn” as critical skills for success . In other words, the ability to constantly update your knowledge and approach may be the most important skill of all.

For today’s leaders, this mindset translates to always seeking growth. Embrace the idea that your expertise is never static. Even as you gain experience, stay curious and open to new ideas. Make a habit of reading broadly, attending workshops or courses, and encouraging your team to do the same. The humility to admit that you need to keep learning will set the tone for your entire organization. After all, if the boss demonstrates continuous learning, it sends a powerful message that development is a collective priority.

The business landscape of the 2020s demands this approach. Consider that a recent World Economic Forum report predicted that by 2025, around 50% of all employees will need reskilling due to rapid technological advances. Leaders are no exception. The challenges you’ll face next year might require knowledge or skills you don’t currently have – and that’s okay, as long as you’re willing to learn. Companies that survive and thrive tend to have leaders who champion learning at all levels. One study on leadership development bluntly states that leaders must be learners, continuously adapting to guide their organizations through change. In practical terms, that could mean picking up new technical skills, learning from younger employees or industry newcomers, or even un-learning old habits that no longer serve you.

The concept of the “21st-century leader as a lifelong learner” also ties back to humility. It takes humility to say “I don’t know everything, but I can learn what I need.” By promoting a learning culture, humble leaders ensure their organizations stay agile. They avoid the stagnation that comes when leaders cling to the notion that the old ways of doing things will always work. Instead, they ask, “What’s new? What can we do better?” – and they model that openness for others. This kind of leadership is crucial in uncertain times, when adaptability can make the difference between sinking or swimming for a business.

Humility in Action: Lessons from Real Leaders

The positive impact of leadership humility isn’t just theory – many respected leaders exemplify it in practice. One high-profile example is Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, who led a dramatic culture change at the tech giant. Nadella famously shifted Microsoft from what he called a “know-it-all” culture to a “learn-it-all” culture. In other words, he explicitly encouraged employees (and modeled himself) to approach work with curiosity and openness rather than arrogance. “The learn-it-all does better than the know-it-all,” Nadella has said, encapsulating why staying humble and hungry for knowledge drives better results. Under his leadership, Microsoft revitalized its innovation and growth, a turnaround many attribute to this humble, collaborative ethos. By listening more and asserting less, Nadella tapped the collective intelligence of the company – something an egotistical leader would have impeded.

Another classic example comes from Jim Collins’s well-known study of what he called “Level 5 leaders.” These top-performing CEOs (from his book Good to Great) were distinguished by a striking personal humility combined with fierce professional will. Instead of crediting themselves for success, they often credited their teams and luck, and took personal responsibility for failures. Collins recounts, for instance, how Darwin Smith, the former CEO of Kimberly-Clark, led the company to extraordinary success but never became arrogant about it. Smith considered himself unremarkable and famously said he “never stopped trying to become qualified for the job” of CEO – even after years of success. That attitude of never being done learning or improving is humility in action. It’s no coincidence that the companies led by such humble chiefs dramatically outperformed their peers. When leaders set their ego aside, people focus on the work and the mission, not on catering to the leader’s vanity.

We see humility pay off in many arenas. Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history, emphasizes knowing the limits of his knowledge. He advises people to define their “circle of competence” and stick to what they understand – and to be honest about what they don’t understand. By avoiding the illusion of knowing it all, Buffett made better investment decisions; this principle applies just as well to corporate strategy. Likewise, leaders like Indra Nooyi, former CEO of PepsiCo, made a point of continuously learning. Nooyi would regularly seek counsel from her peers and even junior staff. She once noted that just because you become CEO doesn’t mean you should stop listening or learning from others. Her humility helped her navigate PepsiCo through turbulent market changes by drawing on diverse viewpoints and expertise within the company.

Even in politics and public life, leadership humility has shown its value. During crises, leaders who openly admit uncertainty and invite expert input tend to achieve better outcomes and public trust than those who project false certainty. For example, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gained respect for her candid and compassionate communication, often acknowledging what she didn’t know while rallying people to find solutions together. The thread through all these cases is clear: humility is not weakness – it’s a leadership superpower. It builds credibility and loyalty. It lets others contribute their best, because they know their leader won’t hog the credit or ignore the truth. And importantly, it keeps the leader themselves in a mindset of growth and adaptability. In uncertain times, those qualities are priceless.

Embrace Humility and Keep Learning

Uncertain times will test every leader. No one can predict every twist and turn, and no one can know it all. The leaders who succeed will be those who pair confidence with humility – confident enough to lead, but humble enough to continually learn and adjust. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by complexity or rapid change, reframe it as a sign that you’re engaged and aware. Use that feeling as fuel to ask questions, reflect, and learn. Encourage your team to do the same, creating a culture where everyone from the CEO on down is a learner. As we’ve discussed, humility in leadership, supported by metacognitive self-reflection, is a proven way to avoid the pitfalls of the Dunning-Kruger effect and guide your organization more effectively.

The call to action now is to put these insights into practice. Start with yourself: What’s one area in your leadership where you might have been “winging it” with too much confidence? How can you dig deeper, seek feedback, or gain new knowledge in that area this month? Identify one assumption you hold and actively question it – you might be surprised what you learn. And don’t walk this journey alone. Great leaders surround themselves with coaches, mentors, and peers who keep them honest and growing 

If you’re ready to cultivate this kind of humble, high-impact leadership in your organization, Connect with an expert at Relevance to explore customized leadership development support. Our team at Relevance has helped many leaders turn feelings of overwhelm into a roadmap for growth and success. We’re here to assist you in developing the metacognitive strategies, continuous learning habits, and leadership skills that drive real results. In these uncertain times, doubling down on learning and humility is one of the best investments you can make in your leadership.

Feel overwhelmed? Good – now use it. Embrace humility, and lead on.